Crude Oil Price Forecast: Rebounds from 50-Day Moving Average Support

Crude oil triggered a two-day bullish reversal of a hammer candlestick pattern on Thursday, as it reached a three-day high of $67.37. A higher daily low was also established at $66.30, which was at the 50-Day MA. The 50-Day line has been tested as support for the past seven days and it has held up. Although there were a few intraday declines below that line, there was not a daily close below it.

Reversal From 50-Day Moving Average

The 50-Day MA is a key trend indicator for dynamic support for crude oil. It was reclaimed in early June and recent lows were the first test of the line as support since it was reclaimed. Today’s bullish reversal indicates that the test of support near the 50-Day may be complete. That opens the door to the possibility of further strengthening in the price of crude oil.

Strong Support Zone Indicated

Furthermore, support around the 50-Day MA is also marked by the neckline of a recent double bottom reversal pattern at $65.32. That price level was confirmed as support following the sharp drop from the June 23 spike high. In addition, notice that the swing lows from September 2024 and March found support in the same price area.

There is also an anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) line begun from the April low near the neckline. The AVWAP line also marked support following the sharp drop from the recent high. That is three lines pointing to the same price zone for potential support.

200-Day Moving Average Resistance

Today’s low found support at the 50-Day MA. A bullish reversal from support of the 50-day line along with the two-day bullish reversal is short-term bullish behavior. A breakout through today’s high will indicate an upside continuation and a breakout above the 20-Day MA as well, now at $67.31. The next key resistance zone would then be around the 200-Day MA, now at $68.48, followed by the most recent interim swing high at $68.77. Notie that the interim swing high found resistance at the 200-Day line. Therefore, the behavior of crude oil around the 200-Day MA will be key to what might happen after that.

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