Crude Oil Price Forecast: Weakens Below 20-Day Average, Bears Regain Control

Breakdown Below 20-Day Average Signals Weakness

Crude oil weakened on Thursday, retreating below the 20-Day moving average for the first time in six sessions and hitting an intraday low of $63.18. This decline followed a second consecutive rejection at the 50-Day moving average after an attempted breakout of a falling wedge pattern failed. An earlier reclaim of the AVWAP indicator also proved temporary, as two intraday moves above it quickly reversed, signaling resistance.

Resistance Confirms and Support Levels Break

The daily high of $64.28 aligned with resistance at the 20-Day average, while the higher swing low at $63.58 failed to hold as support. Each is a short-term bearish sign. These developments reinforce the view that crude remains in a downtrend from the June swing high. Price action continues to trace a falling wedge formation, but near-term weakness places focus on the recent swing low of $62.19. A break below this level would expose the next potential support zone near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $60.66, a level that also aligns with prior consolidation support and the wedge’s lower boundary.

Weekly Chart Shows Bearish Pressure

On the weekly timeframe, crude has formed a bearish outside reversal pattern that will be confirmed on a weekly close below last week’s low of $65.58. Current price action suggests the week could finish in the lower third of the trading range, underscoring downside momentum. The 20-Week moving average, now at $65.29, remains a significant level of resistance. Multiple failed attempts to reclaim it highlight the strength of overhead supply.

Path to Recovery Requires Reclaim of Resistance

For sentiment to shift, crude oil would need a daily close above the 20-Day moving average, followed by a recovery above the AVWAP indicator at $65.50. This level has repeatedly marked support in recent months but has now flipped to resistance. Only a decisive move through these hurdles would reduce the risk of a deeper decline and reintroduce the possibility of testing the 200-Day moving average, currently higher at $67.78. Until then, momentum favors sellers, with downside targets still in play.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.