Crude Oil Price Prediction for November 29, 2017

Oil prices were nearly unchanged but there are view that global oil markets may tighten in the second half of next year.  According to IEA head Farih Birol, as long as demand remains strong and OPEC and its partners in the production cut agreement extend it prices will remain buoyed.

Technicals

Ahead of Tuesday API inventory report, prices remain nearly unchanged on the session. Prices are hovering near former resistance that was support near the early November highs at 58. The pattern continues to show that prices are in a grinding uptrend. Resistance is seen near the November highs at 59.05. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 56.87. Momentum is neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is printing near the zero index level and the MACD histogram has a flat trajectory which reflects consolidation.

Economic data Shows Imports in the U.S. Rose

U.S. October Advance goods trade deficit widened to -$68.3 billion, larger than forecast, after moving out to -$64.1 in September and -$63.3 billion in August which was revised from -$63.3 billion. Goods exports fell 1.0% to $129.1 billion from $130.3 billion and goods imports increased 1.5% to $197.4 billion versus $194.4 billion. Advance wholesale inventories slipped 0.4% to $605.7 billion from $608.2 billion. Advance retail inventories dipped 0.1% to $618.0 billion versus $618.5 billion.

Industrial Product Prices Increased

Canada industrial product price index jumped 1.0% in October month over month after the 0.3% drop in September. A 1.5% gain in the price of motorized and recreational vehicles drove the increase in the total IPPI. A 1.2% run-up in the price of passenger car and light trucks featured, and was associated with the deprecation of the Canadian dollar during the month. Indeed, a weaker Canadian dollar was the real driver of the IPPI, as the excluding of the 2.6% drop in the value of the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar leaves a 0.4% gain in the IPPI. The IPPI grew at a 1.8% year over year pace in October after the 1.5% rate of increase in September. The raw materials price index surged 3.8% in October after a revised 0.2% decline. A 6.9% rise in the crude energy product prices was the driver, with a 7.2% bounce in the price of conventional crude oil featuring.

Housing Prices Rose

U.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.3% to 253.0 in September after rising 0.8% to 252.2 in August (revised from 251.9). Gains were registered in six of the nine regions surveyed, led by the West North Central, with the East South Central slipping 0.4% lower while the West South Central and the Mid Atlantic were unchanged. For Q3, house prices were up 1.4% versus Q2, and increased 6.5% year over year.

Home Prices Rose

U.S. September Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.4% to 203.50 in the 20-City index  after rising 0.39% to 202.68 in August which was revised from 202.87. The annual pace of price appreciation accelerated to 6.19% year over year from 5.82% year over year. That’s the fastest pace since July 2014. The September 10-City index increased 0.48% to 217.27 after rising 0.39% to 216.23. It’s up 5.70% year over year versus 5.21% year over year previously. All 20 cities posted annual gains, led by Seattle, followed by Las Vegas.

German Import Price Inflation Declined

German import price inflation fell back to 2.6% year over year in October, from 3.0% year over year in the pervious month. Like the deceleration in HICP inflation that month the drop was largely driven by lower energy prices and excluding energy the annual rate actually rose to 2.2% year over year from 2.1% year over year. So a confirmation that energy prices continue to play a dominant role in headline developments, but also that underlying inflation pressures are slowly picking up again even on the import price front.