Crude Oil Price Update – $67.11 Trigger Point for Downside Acceleration

June West Texas Intermediate crude oil is trading lower shortly before the regular session opening. The market is being driven lower by concerns over valuation. The longer-term fundamentals are strong, supported by the OPEC-led production cuts. However, short-term issues are being raised by the stronger U.S. Dollar and another increase in the U.S. rig count that could lead to higher production.

At 1200 GMT, June WTI crude oil is trading $67.38 or -$0.72 or -1.06%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. It turned down last week when sellers took out the swing bottom at $67.14. A trade through $67.11 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. This could trigger an eventual break into the next main bottom at $65.59.

A trade through $68.78 will shift momentum to the upside. A move through $69.38 then $69.55 will signal a change in trend to up.

The price action is being controlled by a pair of 50% levels at $67.57 and $68.33. Both levels are new resistance.

The main range is $61.86 to $69.55. Its retracement zone at $65.71 to $64.80 is the primary downside target. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this zone.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the earlier price action, the direction of the June WTI crude oil is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $67.57.

A sustained move under $67.57 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out $67.14 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. The daily chart starts to open up under this level with the next major targets an uptrending Gann angle at $65.86 and a 50% level at $65.71.

A sustained move over $67.57 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum, we could see a drive into an uptrending Gann angle at $68.07 and a 50% level at $68.33. The latter is a possible trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Although the main trend is down, it could change quickly if the Trump Administration makes a surprise announcement in favor of renewed sanctions on Iran.