Crude Oil Price Update – Bulls Could Regain Control on Sustained Move Over $81.83

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading higher on Monday on follow-through buying after Friday’s better-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report and OPEC+’s decision to stay-the-course with its 400,000 bpd production increase.

At 12:28 GMT, December WTI crude oil is trading $81.66, up $0.39 or +0.48%.

Also contributing to the rise was the passage of U.S. President Joe Biden’s often-delayed $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which may boost growth and demand for fuel and Saudi Arabia’s late Friday decision to raise its benchmark crude oil price for customers in Asia in December.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the two main tops at $84.88 and $85.41 with change the trend to up and reaffirm the change, respectively. A move through $78.25 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor range is $85.41 to $78.25. The market is currently straddling its 50% level or pivot at $81.83.

Support is a pair of 50% levels at $80.04 and $79.12. If the downtrend is reaffirmed then look for new support at $76.91 and $76.23.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December WTI crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $81.83.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $81.83 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move can generate enough upside momentum then look for buyers to make a run at $83.42. Taking this level out will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the next potential upside targets coming in at $84.88 and $85.41. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $81.83 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into $80.04 and $79.12.

If the market is forming a bottom then look for new counter-trend buyers to come in on at pullback to $80.04-$79.12. However, a failure at $79.12 will indicate the return of sellers, which could take out $78.25 and lead to an eventual test of $76.91-$76.23.