Crude Oil Price Update – Close Over $35.79 Forms Potentially Bullish Closing Price Reversal Bottom

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading lower on Monday but clawing back nearly half of its earlier losses. Prices fell more than 3% early in the session on worries a swathe of coronavirus lockdowns across Europe will weaken fuel demand, while traders braced for turbulence during the U.S. presidential election week.

At 14:49 GMT, December WTI crude oil futures are trading $35.30, down $0.49 or -1.37%.

Countries across Europe have reimposed lockdown measures aimed at slowing COVID-19 infection rates which have accelerated in the continent in the past month. Traders are eyeing the situation in Europe as if trying to predict the next round of restrictions in the United States.

Rising supplies from Libya and Iraq are also weighing on prices with traders hoping OPEC+ would consider postponing a plan to reduce current production cuts starting January 1. OPEC+ is scheduled to hold a policy meeting over November 30 and December 1.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the May 28 main bottom at $33.53 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The main trend will change to up on a move through the last main top at $41.90. This is highly unlikely but the market is inside the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. This won’t change the main trend to up, but if confirmed, it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through $39.83 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is $25.31 to $44.33. The market is currently testing is retracement zone at $34.82 to $32.58. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the December WTI crude oil futures contract on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s close at $35.79.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $35.79 will indicate the presence of sellers. Breaking under the main 50% level at $34.82 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could lead to a retest of the intraday low at $33.64, followed closely by the May 28 main bottom at $33.53.

The major support is the Fibonacci level at $32.58. This level has to hold or we could see an acceleration to the downside with the April 22 bottom at $25.31 the next potential target.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $35.79 will signal the presence of buyers. This will also put the market in a position to form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed, this could drive the market into the minor pivot at $37.77.

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