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James Hyerczyk
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WTI Crude Oil

Traders will be eyeing the June WTI crude oil opening on Sunday to see the impact if any on prices due to the shut down on Friday after a cyber-attack on the largest U.S. fuel pipeline system, Colonial Pipeline. The news has prompted worries about a spike in gasoline and diesel prices ahead of the peak summer driving season if the outage does not end soon.

On Friday, June WTI crude oil settled at $64.90, up $0.19 or +0.29%.

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Since the shutdown could limit gasoline and diesel supply, prices in those to markets are expected to rally on the opening, but crude oil prices could actually fall if refineries demand less crude. This would cause a back-up in supply, which would be bearish.

Look for heightened volatility with the direction of the market undermined at this time.

Daily June WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on May 5.

A trade through $66.76 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through $62.91.

The minor range is $62.91 to $66.76. On Friday, the market closed on its pivot at $64.84.

The short-term range is $67.29 to $57.29. Its retracement zone at $63.47 to $62.29 is potential support. This zone is also controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The main support zone is $59.17 to $57.25.

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Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The direction of the June WTI crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at $64.84.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $64.84 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the main top at $66.76, followed by the March 8 main top at $67.29. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with $70.00 the next major target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $64.84 will signal the presence of sellers. This could create the downside momentum needed to challenge the Fibonacci level at $63.47, followed by the main bottom at $62.91 and the 50% level at $62.29.

Taking out $62.29 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target the April 22 main bottom at $60.61.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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