James Hyerczyk
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WTI Crude Oil

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are retreating from their intraday high on Wednesday, shortly after the release of the government’s weekly inventories report that showed a drop in U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories, and a rise in gasoline inventories. The price action suggests traders were disappointed by the numbers.

At 15:00 GMT, June WTI crude oil futures are trading $66.29, up $0.60 or +0.91%.

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According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories fell by 8 million barrels in the week to April 30 to 485.1 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.3 million-barrel drop.

U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 737,000 barrels in the week to 235.8 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 652,000-barrel drop.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.9 million barrels in the week to 136.2 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel drop, the EIA data showed.

Daily June WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high at $66.76 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $62.91 will change the main trend to down.

The new minor range is $62.91 to $66.76. Its 50% level at $64.84 is the new potential downside target.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June WTI crude oil futures contract into the close on Wednesday will be determined by trader reaction to $65.69.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $65.69 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a breakout over the intraday high with the March 8 main top at $67.29 the next upside target, and potential trigger point for an upside breakout.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $65.69 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a move into the new minor pivot at $64.84.

Side Notes

A close under $65.69 will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could lead to a 2 to 3 day correction with $64.84 the first target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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