Based on the early price action and the current price at $56.25, the direction of the January WTI crude oil the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $56.08 and the uptrending Gann angle at $55.82.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil is trading higher as traders try to recover some of Friday’s steep losses. Traders are saying Friday’s sell-off was fueled by the announcement of the resignation of the Iraq prime minister in response to weeks of unrest and protests in the country. Traders fear that a new regime may lead to the lifting of sanctions against the country, leading to increased supply in the open market.
At 13:17 GMT, January WTI crude oil is at $56.25, up $1.08 or +1.94%.
Today’s rebound rally is being fueled partly by reports showing stronger-than-expected factory activity in China, and the possibility that OPEC and its allies may vote to make deeper production cuts at its December 5-6 meeting.
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on November 22 at $58.74.
A trade through $54.85 will change the main trend to down. A move through $58.74 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend.
The minor trend is down. It changed to down on Friday, confirming the shift in momentum to the downside.
The main range is $61.48 to $50.69. Its retracement zone at $56.08 to $57.36 is controlling the near-term direction of the market.
The minor range is $54.85 to $58.74. Its 50% level at $56.80 is potential resistance.
The short-term range is $50.69 to $58.74. Its retracement zone at $54.72 to $53.77 is a potential downside target and support area.
Based on the early price action and the current price at $56.25, the direction of the January WTI crude oil the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $56.08 and the uptrending Gann angle at $55.82.
A sustained move over $56.08 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into $56.80, followed by $57.36 then $58.11.
A sustained move under $55.82 will signal the presence of sellers. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the main target a support cluster at $54.85 to $54.72.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.