Crude Oil Price Update – Trend Changes to Down on Move Through $63.67

March West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell on Friday on concerns about rising interest rates and as the U.S. Dollar firmed against the major currencies following a strong U.S. jobs report. A stronger Greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities like crude oil more expensive to holders of other currencies, raising questions about future demand.

Despite the firmer dollar, the market continued to be underpinned by strong adherence to the OPEC-led plan to cut production, trim the global supply and stabilize prices. This offset potentially negative news about U.S. crude production topping 10 million barrels a day in November for the first time since 1970.

Daily Swing Chart Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $66.66 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

A move through $63.67 will change the main trend to down.

The major support is a long-term 50% level at $64.11. Look for an upside bias as long as this price level holds as support.

The main range is $56.07 to $66.66. If there is change in trend then look for the selling to continue into its retracement zone at $61.37 to $60.12.

On the upside, the resistance lines up at $66.16, $66.89 and $68.27.

Daily Swing Chart Forecast

Based on the price action the last two days and the close at $65.45, the direction of the crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $66.16.

A sustained move under $66.16 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive the market into $64.11. A rising dollar is likely to drive the market through this level. This could create the downside momentum needed to take out $63.67 then $62.78.

Overcoming $66.16 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a move into $66.66 then $66.89.

The May 12, 2015 top at $66.89 is the trigger point for a potential acceleration to the upside with the February 3, 2015 top at $68.27 the next major target.

The direction of the market on Monday is likely to be influenced by the movement in the U.S. Dollar. A stronger dollar and rising interest rates could put pressure on the market.