Daily Grains Analysis for March 19, 2018 – Corn Prices Tumble Through Support

Grain prices were lower early North American trade on Monday, breaking down from support levels. A stronger dollar is weighing on prices, despite fundamentals that show that demand for bean meal is stronger than expected.  The most recent crush report from the National Oilseed Processing Association shows that demand for soybean meal continues to rise.

Corn Prices

Corn prices broke down through support near the 10-day moving average at 382, which is now seen as resistance. Corn prices continue to hover near resistance which is near the July 2017 highs at 3.94. The first level of support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 3.76. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover sell signal.  The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices. The RSI has come from overbought territory to neutral territory as it moves lower reflecting accelerating negative momentum.

Soybean Prices

NOPA’s latest crush easily beat expectations.  153.72 million bushels crushed vs analyst estimates of 149.44 million.  The February crush was the largest for any prior February on record. The crush was down 5.76% from January, but 7.65% more than February of 2017. Meal exports totaled 755,103 tons, down 12.2% month over month but 2.2% more than last year. Soybean oil stocks far exceeded expectations. Analysts had been forecasting stocks to top out somewhere between 1.65 to 1.84 billion pounds and they came in at 1.856 billion. Month over month, stocks jumped 7.4% and are 4.9% higher than they were at the end of February 2017.

Soybean prices are moving lower early in North American trade dropping more than 1%. Prices are poised to test an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1033.  Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1043. Negative momentum has accelerated as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index prints in the red with a declining trajectory which points to lower prices.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices broke down trough trend line support which was former resistance now resistance again at 469.  Prices are now down for 3-consecutive trading session. Target support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 454. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover sell signal.  The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices. The RSI (relative strength index) is moving lower breaking through support which points to accelerating negative momentum.