DAX 30 Fundamental Analysis – week of September 12, 2016 – Forecast

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Updated: Sep 10, 2016, 07:08 GMT+00:00

The DAX 30 bounced up and down on central bank actions. The DAX closed at 10573 well below its highs this week. The index was down over 1% for the week

The DAX 30 bounced up and down on central bank actions. The DAX closed at 10573 well below its highs this week. The index was down over 1% for the week but is a strong buy in the new week as the strength of the US dollar weighed on the euro. The markets responded to disappointment over the lack of additional stimulus from the ECB at this meeting this week.

The disappointing monetary policy decision taken by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday weighed further on the German equity market. In the meantime, German exports fell sharply in July according to official data showed on Friday. Deutsche Bank advanced the most with a 4.12- percent increase, followed by Lufthansa and Munich Re. Meanwhile, German housing company Vonovia lost the most, dropping 3.85 percent, followed by Heidelberg Cement and Deutsche Post.

Germany’s largest commercial bank, Deutsche Bank, was the most traded share of the day with a turnover of 286.1 million euros (around 320.8 million U.S. dollars).

As a result of the recent weakness, a failed test of key resistance at the August 15th 10,802 peak has been established, leaving the current trend in the DAX neutral, as the Index has essentially been consolidating since mid-August. This consolidation also represents a potential topping formation. However, in order to confirm the top and turn the outlook for the DAX more negative, a sustained close below key support at the August 22/29 lows near 10,440 is required.

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This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date	Country	Name	Volatility	Previous	Consensus
9/13/2016	GBP	Core Consumer Price Index	3	1.3	1.4
9/13/2016	GBP	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	3	0.6	0.7
9/13/2016	EUR	ECB President Draghi’s Speech	3
9/13/2016	EUR	ZEW Survey – Economic	3	4.6	6.7
9/14/2016	NZD	Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	3	2.8
9/15/2016	AUD	Employment Change	3	26.2	15
9/15/2016	AUD	Unemployment Rate	3	5.7	5.7
9/15/2016	CHF	SNB Interest Rate Decision	3	-0.75	-0.75
9/15/2016	CHF	SNB press conference	3
9/15/2016	GBP	BoE Asset Purchase Facility	3	435	435
9/15/2016	GBP	BoE Interest Rate Decision	3	0.25	0.25
9/15/2016	GBP	Monetary Policy Summary	3
9/15/2016	GBP	BOE MPC Vote Cut	3	9	0
9/15/2016	GBP	BOE MPC Vote Unchanged	3	0	9
9/15/2016	GBP	BOE MPC Vote Hike	3	0	0
9/15/2016	GBP	Bank of England Minutes	3
9/15/2016	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	3	0	0
9/16/2016	USD	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	3	0.8	1
9/16/2016	USD	Consumer Price Index ECORE	3	2.2	2.2
9/16/2016	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	3	89.8	91

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 12 11:30 Germany Eur 2bn Mar 2017 Bubill

Sep 12 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 14

Sep 13 11:00 Netherlands Eur 2-3bn 0% Jan 2022 DSL

Sep 13 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:30 UK 0.125% 2046 I/L Gilt

Sep 14 11:30 Germany Eur 1bn 2.5% Jul 2044 Bund

Sep 15 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Sep 15 11:50 France Holds bond auction

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