Central bank moves and recession worries drive mixed European market reactions, impacting FTSE 100, DAX Index, and UK's economic outlook.
European markets showed a mixed response on Friday, with key indices like the FTSE 100 and the Stoxx 600 reacting variably to a week loaded with central bank decisions. The Stoxx 600 index saw modest gains, primarily led by the mining sector, while the DAX in Germany also trended upwards. In contrast, the FTSE 100 experienced a slight dip.
The Bank of England’s decision to maintain its interest rate at 5.25% for the third time in a row played a significant role in the market’s movements. BoE Chief Andrew Bailey’s indication of persistently high interest rates points to a cautious fiscal approach, affecting the pound’s strength against the dollar. Talk of higher rates for longer weighed on the FTSE 100 Index.
The economic outlook in the UK showed signs of vitality with business activity reaching a six-month high, as per the S&P Global/CIPS survey. However, looming concerns of a potential recession, fueled by high mortgage rates, cast a shadow over this optimism. Analyst Thomas Watts from Abrdn suggests a likely recession in the UK by next year.
In sectoral news, energy and mining stocks provided a boost to European markets. Corporate updates included a notable rise in Sectra’s shares post strong earnings, while Symrise faced a decline after revising its EBITDA margin guidance.
The mixed market reactions and the possibility of economic downturns in major economies like the UK and Germany paint a cautiously bearish short-term forecast. With central banks maintaining a tight grip on interest rates and growth forecasts being revised down, the markets are treading a path of cautious anticipation and muted optimism.
The FTSE 100 Index, currently at 7608.99, is trading above both its 200-day (7565.68) and 50-day (7479.94) moving averages, indicating a bullish trend. The index’s position above these averages reflects ongoing positive momentum. However, it is approaching trend line resistance at 7625.95, a breach of which could further strengthen the bullish outlook.
On the downside, the minor support at 7524.87 and main support at 7401.87 are key levels to watch. If the index falls below these, it could signal a shift towards a bearish sentiment.
In summary, while the current market sentiment leans bullish, a close watch on the approaching resistance and support levels is crucial for anticipating potential trend shifts.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.