Did Ethereum Put In a Long-Term Bottom?

Previous Elliott Wave Analyses

In my previous update, see here, I reviewed the intermediate-term Elliott Wave Principle (EWP)-count for Ethereum (ETHUSD). I found, among other essential items,

“Given ETH already dropped to $880 on June 18, it is certainly possible for the cryptocurrency to have bottomed already. The classic, ideal, standard c=a extension … targets $870. But, the cryptocurrency will have to close above … $1250 … without falling back below $1000 to suggest the low is indeed in place, and the run to ~$10K has begun.”

Fast forward, and ETH broke above $1250 last week and traded as high as $1620s over the previous few days. These last few days are a nice sideways consolidation in EWP terms, considered a minor 4^th wave: orange wave-4 in Figure 1 below. I told my premium crypto trading members that a breakout over $1275 would target $1700. See. So far, so good! That was an easy +27% trade so far.

Figure 1. Ethereum daily chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.

Ethereum Price Forecast

I need to see five waves up to be more confident of at least another move higher.

The daily chart shows I am tracking the potential for five smaller waves higher (grey i, ii, iii, iv, and v) since the late June low. It requires ETH to hold above $1280 and then breakout over $1700, which is the initial symmetry upside target, as I showed in my recent premium member update.

That allows ETH’s price to target $2000-2200, completing these five waves and adding additional weight to the evidence the cryptocurrency has bottomed for the long-term and is ideally on its way to $10K+ or, at a minimum, working on a longer-term bounce.

However, nothing in the charts tells me the rally to $10K, which I have been vocal about since at least January (see here), will not materialize. Because in December last year, I said a prolonged Bear market would happen on a break below $3575, which is what we got.

Yes, I am aware ETH bottomed lower than originally anticipated. Still, please remember nobody knows everything beforehand as one can initially only calculate downside price levels based on the price data available by using standard-, textbook-, retraces, wave extensions, and support levels: anticipate the “known unknowns.” The market then reserves the right to do what it must do (monitor and track), and when it deviates from the ideal path, one adjusts accordingly.