The Dow Jones Industrial Average is the biggest percentage loser late in the session on Monday. However, the sell-off is ramping up in all three major indexes following President Trump’s order to increase global tariffs. The biggest losers in the Dow are International Business Machines (-10.89%), American Express (-8.16%) and, Salesforce (-5.25%). Procter & Gamble and Walmart are both up about 2.50%.
The Dow cash index (DJI) continues to press downward through its 50-day moving average at 49025.28, which is new resistance. Two minor bottoms at 48459.88 and 48428.13 stand in the way of a key retracement zone at 48120.86 to 47556.37, which is our first major downside target and value zone.
March E-mini Dow futures are also pressing through the 50-day moving average at 49229 after rejecting a pivot at 49657 several times. Minor targets come in at 48703 and 48506, but the main target on this leg down and the key value zone come in at 48383 to 47857. Buyers may show up on a test of this area to stop the slide.
The cash S&P 500 Index (SPX) is down over 1% at the mid-session after decisively breaking its 50-day moving average at 6895.83 on the opening. Additional resistance is a retracement zone at 6888.89 to 6915.65.
The index is currently testing the pivot of last week’s range at 6845.75. If it fails, downside momentum could easily send the market to the key retracement zone and value area at 6762.10 to 6705.42, where aggressive bottom pickers could step in for a technical bounce.
March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures never regained their 50-day moving average last week, so the pressure started early Sunday night. There appears to be enough downside momentum to challenge the major retracement zone at 6813.00 to 6758.75, which stopped the selling last week at 6791.00 and earlier in the month at 6751.50. The third time could be the charm for the bears because if 6758.75 fails to hold, prices could drop sharply to the 200-day moving average at 6639.61.
The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) is sitting between the 50-day moving average resistance at 23275.19 and the 200-day moving average support at 21903.23. The trade is neutral but the trend is down, suggesting buyers are coming in on the dips, but there aren’t enough buyers taking out offers. This usually indicates they like the market but only at their price.
Support is 22290.08 to 21881.82. Resistance is 22959.14, then 23275.26.
March E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures are straddling a short-term pivot at 24843.50 with a bias to the downside. If the selling pressure persists, we could see a near-term test of the 200-day moving average at 24443.39. Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of this indicator.
The upside is capped by a downtrend line at 25171.00 and a pair of 50% levels at 25294.50 to 25441.75. The major resistance and trend indicator is the 50-day moving average at 25497.69. The index looks like it is trying to form a support base, which is similar to accumulation at bargain prices, but there just isn’t a catalyst in the market at this time to fuel the start of a solid rally. Like the cash market, it is likely to bounce off the 200-day MA and 50-day MA, keeping it inside a trading range.
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James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.