E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – August 7, 2015 Forecast

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures reaffirmed its downtrend on Thursday when it took out the previous main bottom at 17319. There was almost no follow-through on the move, but at least it gave us an indication as to what investors were thinking going into today’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Investors are looking for a 222K number. A report substantially above this number is likely to trigger a sharp break with the first target a steep downtrending angle at 17051. The main target today is a major retracement zone at 17005 to 16711.

A number substantially below 222K will likely trigger a short-covering rally or it may even encourage new money to come into the market. The first target is a downtrending angle at 17563. Look for resistance on the first test of this level because the main trend is down.

However, 17563 is also a potential trigger point for an upside breakout with the next target the main top at 17721. This is followed by a pair of downtrending angles at 17819 and 17947.

Simply speaking, the direction of the market is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s low at 17305. Sellers will either take out this level with conviction, triggering a possible break into 17005, or it will hold and buyers will try to drive the market through 17563.