E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – December 14, 2016 Forecast

March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading slightly lower shortly before the cash market opening. We’re looking for volatility today and a possible two-sided trade as investors react to the Fed’s monetary policy statement, the press conference by Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the “dot plot” analysis by Federal Open Market Committee members.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, the market is also in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. A trade through 19001 will turn the main trend to down.

The short-term range is 19001 to 19900. Its 50% level or pivot comes in at 19451. This price is essentially controlling the short-term direction of the Down.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 19846, the direction of the Dow is going to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending angle at 19897.

A sustained move over 19897 will signal the presence of buyers. If this occurs then it’s not going to take much to drive the Dow into the psychological 20,000 level.

The inability to overcome the uptrending angle at 19897 will signal the presence of sellers. There is plenty of room to the downside but we’re going to need a catalyst to drive it into the support cluster at 19451 to 19449.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 19897 today. Trader reaction to this angle will tell us if the bulls or the bears are in control. Look for volatility starting around 1900 GMT.

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