E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – July 3, 2018 Forecast

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are expected to open higher based on the pre-market trade. Buyers may be taking advantage of thin pre-holiday trading conditions. We could also be looking at bargain-hunters taking advantage of the absence of the major players due to the U.S. Fourth of July holiday.

On thin trading days, it’s very easy to move a market with a big order. It’s also easy to get caught in bull and bear traps so be careful buying strength and selling weakness.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on June 28 and the subsequent follow-through rally the next session.

A trade through 23978 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is down. A trade through 24496 will change the minor trend to up and confirm the shift in momentum to up.

The main range is 23500 to 25418. The market is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 24464 to 24237. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is 25418 to 23978. If the rally continues today then its retracement zone at 24698 to 24868 will become the primary upside target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at 24394.

A sustained move over 24394 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could drive the Dow into the 50% level at 24464.

Taking out 24464 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target a 50% level at 24698. This is followed by a resistance cluster at 24844, 24868 and 24906.

Basically, look for the upside bias to strengthen over 24464 and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under 24237.