E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – June 26, 2018 Forecast

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading nearly flat as we approach the opening of the U.S. cash market. The trade is a little more relaxed today as investors try to digest the events from Monday which led to a steep sell-off. More importantly, Dow futures traders are trying to figure out a way to end the 11 day sell-off from 25418 to 24077.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down on Monday when sellers took out the swing bottom at 24263. Early today, it looks as if buyers are trying to regain this previous bottom, suggesting that yesterday break through this level may have been an exhaustion fueled move created by sell stops rather than fresh shorting pressure.

Additionally, it’s a little hard to conceive professional short-sellers entering new positions by selling weakness after a 10 day break. Therefore, I have to assume we may see a counter-trend rally today.

The move may not lead to a change in trend, but it will give the bears a chance to book profits and re-enter short positions at more favorable price levels.

A trade through 24077 will signal a resumption of the downtrend, while a move back over 24263 may encourage more aggressive short-covering.

The main range is 23500 to 25418. Its retracement zone at 24459 to 24233 is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is 25418 to 24077. Its 50% level or pivot at 24748 is the first upside target. This is followed by a major retracement zone at 24925 to 25337.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 24233.

A sustained move over 24233 will indicate the return of buyers. This could trigger a fast rally into the 50% level at 24459. Taking out this level could generate the upside momentum needed to challenge the pivot at 24748.

A sustained move under 24233 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of yesterday’s low at 24077. Taking out this level could eventually lead to an acceleration to the downside with the next major target coming in at 23500.