E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Inside Major Retracement Zone; Strengthens Over 24890, Weakens Under 24234

March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures surged on Friday in reaction to the news that the United States and China may have offered concessions at their mid-level meetings in Beijing earlier in the month. Investors celebrated the potential progress in trade negotiations, driving the Dow to its first 4-week winning streak since August.

On Friday, the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures settled at 24687, up 366 or +1.48%.

Since Monday is a U.S. bank holiday and the New York Stock Exchange is closed, we could see limited price action because of light volume and an early futures market close.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The next target is the December 12 main top at 24860. The uptrend is safe for now, however, due to the prolonged move in terms of price and time, the index is in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. The minor trend will change to down on a trade through 23640. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is 27015 to 21452. Its retracement zone at 24234 to 24890 is controlling the long-term direction of the index. On Friday, the index closed inside this zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at 24687, the direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 24234.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 24234 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a potential extension into the main top at 24860, followed closely by the main Fibonacci level at 24890. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside over this level with the next major target the December 3 main top at 26110.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 24234 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a potential break into the minor bottom at 23640.

Taking out 23640 will shift momentum to the downside. This could trigger a further break into a retracement zone at 23654 to 23397.