E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – March 10, 2016 Forecast

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading slightly higher shortly before the ECB stimulus announcement and the cash market opening. The market is currently trading at the apex of a small triangle chart pattern. This indicates impending volatility so investors should prepare for an expanded range after several days of consolidation.

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4357.75 will reaffirm the uptrend. The main trend will turn to down on a move through 4180.25.

The main range is 4697.75 to 3862.25. Its retracement zone is 4280.00 to 4378.75. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the index. Currently, the index is trading inside this zone. It has straddled the lower, or 50% level at 4280.00 the last four days.

The short-term range is 3862.25 to 4357.75. Its retracement zone at 4110.00 to 4051.50 is the primary downside target.

Based on yesterday’s close at 4294.50 and the earlier price action, the direction of the market is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term downtrending angle at 4305.75 and the main 50% level at 4280.00.

A sustained move over 4305.75 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the first target a main top at 4357.75. This is followed by the main Fib level at 4378.75.

The Fib level at 4378.75 is also a trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next target up at 4501.75.

A sustained move under 4280.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could create enough downside momentum to challenge the short-term angle at 4236.25. This is the last potential support angle before the 4180.25 main bottom.

Taking out 4180.25 will change the main trend to down with the next target an uptrending angle at 4166.25. If this angle fails then the index is likely to complete the retracement of the recent rally with a break into 4110.00 to 4051.53.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 4305.75 and 4280.00. Look for an upside bias on a sustained move over 4305.75 and a downside bias on a sustained move under 4280.00.