E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Reaction to 12924.25 Sets Tone into Close

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading slightly higher shortly before the mid-session on Monday in a mostly subdued trade. Traders seem to be just trying to make a market as they awaited cues from the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting this week amid caution over rising borrowing costs spurred by massive fiscal stimulus.

At 15:19 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 12957.25, up 33.00 or +0.26%.

At the end of the Fed’s two-day meeting on Wednesday, policymakers are expected to forecast that the U.S. economy will grow in 2021 at the fastest rate in decades while reiterating their dovish stance for the foreseeable future.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom on March 5.

A trade through 12200.00 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through 13316.75.

The main range is 13888.00 to 12200.00. Its retracement zone at 13044.00 to 13243.25 is resistance. This zone stopped the buying on Thursday at 13110.50.

The short-term range is 12200.00 to 13110.50. Its retracement zone at 12655.25 to 12547.75 is the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action suggests the direction of the index into the close will be determined by trader reaction to 12924.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 12924.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a late surge into 13044.00, followed closely by 13110.50. Taking out this level could fuel an acceleration into 13243.25, followed closely by a main top at 13316.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 12924.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger the start of a steep break with the next target area 12655.25 to 12547.75. Look for aggressive counter-trend buyers to show up on a test of this area. They will be trying to form a potentially bullish secondary higher bottom.