E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 6494.75, Weakens Under 6358.75

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures closed sharply higher on Friday. The rally was driven by a stronger-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report and dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Both events alleviated fears of a slowing economy. Powell said the Fed would be patient with future rate hikes, calming fears that the central bank may have been too aggressive with policy.

On Friday, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 6434.00, up 272.00 or +4.23%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned up when buyers took out the last swing top at 6409.25 on Friday. The new main bottom is 6136.50. The trend will change back to down on a trade through this level.

The first leg up from 5820.50 was 582 points in 4 trading sessions. If this pattern continues then we could see a rally to 6718.50 by Thursday, January 10.

The nearest support is the long-term 50% level at 5866.50.

The short-term range is 6897.00 to 5820.50. The market closed inside its retracement zone at 6358.75 to 6485.75. Trader reaction to this zone should determine the next near-term move.

The main range is 7169.00 to 5820.50. Its retracement zone at 6494.75 to 6654.00 is the next upside target. Sellers could come in on a test of this zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the change in trend to up and the close at 6434.00, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 6485.75.

Bullish Scenario

Taking out 6485.75 and sustaining the move will indicate the presence of buyers. This should create the momentum needed to take out the main 50% level at 6494.75. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next targets 6654.00 and 6718.50. The latter is the swing chart target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 6358.75 will signal the return of sellers. This could trigger a break back to the 50% level at 6299.25. Crossing to the weak side of this level will indicate the selling is getting stronger.