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E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 7447.50, Weakens Under 7410.25

By:
James Hyerczyk
Updated: Mar 30, 2019, 03:05 UTC

Based on Friday’s close at 7400.50, the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 7410.50.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

The technology-based June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract settled higher on Friday, driven by renewed optimism over the progress of trade talks between the United States and China. Lower Treasury yields also dampened concerns over a U.S. recession. Investor sentiment was also boosted by Lyft, the ride-sharing company that jumped more than 8 percent in its first day of trading.

On Friday, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 7400.50, up 48.50 or +0.66%.

E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top at 7544.75 on March 22 and its subsequent confirmation.

A trade through 7276.00 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. A move through 7544.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 7276.00 will reaffirm the minor downtrend. A move through 7447.50 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is 6965.75 to 7544.75. Its retracement zone at 7255.25 to 7187.00 is the primary downside target. This is a short-term value area. Since the main trend is down, buyers are likely to come in on a test of this zone.

The minor range is 7544.75 to 7276.00. Its retracement zone at 7410.50 to 7442.00 is the primary upside target. This zone stopped the rally on Friday at 7414.50.

The retracement zone is very important to the structure of the index because bullish traders are going to try to take out the upper level in an effort to make 7276.00 a new main bottom and bearish traders are going to try to stop a rally in an effort to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s close at 7400.50, the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 7410.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 7410.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a quick test of the short-term Fibonacci level at 7442.00 and the minor top at 7447.50. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the main top at 7544.75 the next likely upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 7410.50 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor bottom at 7276.00, followed by the main 50% level at 7255.25. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this area, but if it fails then look for the selling to extend into the minor Fibonacci level at 7187.00.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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