E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strong Upside Bias on Sustained Move Over 13243.25

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading sharply higher late in the session on Thursday, a strong sign that investors aren’t afraid to take home new long positions ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report and the long Easter holiday weekend. The move also indicates strong confidence as well as optimism about the pace of the U.S. economic recovery.

At 19:29 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are at 13285.75, up 196.00 or +1.50%.

NASDAQ components Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Nvidia jumped 1% or more, with those and other growth stocks showing signs of awakening after lagging in recent weeks behind so-called value stocks expected to outperform as the economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.

Despite today’s strength, the NASDAQ remains about 5% below its February 12 record high close, still smarting as higher U.S. bond yields hurt technology stocks.

In economic news, data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly last week. However, other data showed a measure of manufacturing activity soared to its strongest level in more than 37 years in March, with employment at factories the highest since February 2018.

Traders should start watching the CBOE Volatility Index since it slipped below 18 for the first time in 14 months. This is a complacency indicator, which tends to indicate investors aren’t too worried about the downside risks. It’s one of the best contrarian indicators so make sure you have it inside your trading toolbox.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 13172.00 changed the main trend to up. The uptrend was reaffirmed when buyers took out the pair of main tops at 13287.25 and 13316.75. The main trend will change to down on a move through the last main bottom at 12609.75.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 12776.50 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is 13888.00 to 12200.00. The index is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at 13243.00 to 13044.00. This makes the area new support. The zone is also controlling the near-term direction of the index.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at 13243.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 13243.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. This will also set in motion a rally that could eventually lead to a test of the record high at 13888.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 13243.00 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target will be yesterday’s close at 13089.75. Crossing to the weak side of this price will put the index in a position to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.