E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Trend Changes to Up on Trade Through 7782.25

September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures closed lower on Friday, producing a minor reversal top in the process. Due to the below average pre-holiday volume, we don’t think this is indicate of a change in momentum. It probably represents weak buying or profit-taking ahead of Monday’s U.S. Labor Day holiday. Additionally, many of the major players were also on the sidelines, unable to help drive the index higher. The major U.S. stock exchanges will be closed on Monday. Regular trading resumes on Tuesday.

On Friday, September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 7690.75, down 21.25 or -0.28%.

 

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher. A trade through 7782.25 will change the main trend to up. A move through 7789.50 will reaffirm the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 7353.25.

The minor trend is up. This move led to the shift in momentum to the upside. A trade through 7504.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside and serve as a warning that sellers are approaching the main bottom.

The short-term range is 8051.75 to 7224.50. Its retracement zone at 7638.00 to 7735.75 is acting like resistance. The index settled inside this zone. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the near-term direction of the index.

The main range is 6969.00 to 8051.75. Its retracement zone at 7510.25 to 7382.50 is major support. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the index.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at 7690.75, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 7638.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 7638.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to make a run at the short-term Fibonacci level at 7735.75.

Overtaking 7735.75 will put the index in a strong position. If it’s strong enough then look for buyers to attempt to take out Friday’s high at 7770.50, and the two main tops at 7782.25 and 7789.50. This will change the main trend to up and also confirm the chart pattern.

The main top at 7789.50 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the July 24 main top at 8051.75 the next major upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 7735.75 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out the 50% level at 7638.00 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next targets the main 50% level at 7510.25 and the minor bottom at 7504.25.