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James Hyerczyk
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures posted a dramatic closing price reversal top last week. This indicates the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels. Although the index hit an all-time high early in the week, disappointing earnings from Facebook and Twitter helped bring in enough sellers to form the potentially bearish chart pattern. We’ll be looking for a follow-through to the downside to confirm the pattern.

Weekly September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through 7530.00 will negate the closing price reversal top. It will also signal a resumption of the uptrend.

A trade through last week’s low at 7263.50 will confirm the chart pattern. This won’t change the trend to down but it will shift momentum to the downside. It could also trigger the start of a 2 to 3 week correction with 6934.50 the minimum downside target.

The minor range is 6956.00 to 7530.00. Its 50% level or 50% is 7243.00. Since the main trend is up, we could see a technical bounce on the first test of this level. Look for an acceleration to the downside if this pivot fails as support.

The main range is 6339.00 to 7530.00. Its retracement zone at 6934.50 to 6794.00 is the primary downside target. Buyers are likely to come in on a test of this zone because it’s a value area.


Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s chart pattern and the close at 7301.25, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 7243.00.

A sustained move over 7243.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If buying volume increases on the move then look for a possible retest of 7530.00.

Taking out 7243.00 will signal the presence of sellers. The daily chart is wide open under this level so watch for a potential acceleration to the downside. The next two major targets are 6956.00 and 6934.50.

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