E-mini Russell 2000 Index (TF) Futures Technical Analysis – March 17, 2014 Forecast

After posting a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom on Friday, the June E-mini Russell 2000 Index followed through to the upside. Unlike the other major indices, the Russell did not sell-off overnight, suggesting investors were hedging ahead of the Crimean referendum over the week-end. Since the referendum passed and the uncertainty lifted, follow-through buying came in overnight.

The short-term range is 1208.20 to 1165.40. The retracement zone and first objective created by this range is 1186.80 to 1181.80. The lower or 50% level was tested overnight. A follow-through rally after the opening should trigger a move into the upper or 61.8% level at 1181.80.

Shortly before the opening, the market is also straddling a downtrending angle from the 1208.20 top at 1184.20. A sustained move through this level could trigger an eventual rally into the next downtrending angle at 1196.20.

A major uptrending angle, moving up 4 points per day from the 1985.10 bottom, is at 1193.10. Crossing over to the bullish side of this angle will put the market in a very strong position and could trigger an eventual test of the contract high at 1208.20.

The tone of the day will be determined by how investors react to the 50% level at 1186.80. Holding this level will be a sign that buyers are coming in. A failure to take out and hold 1186.80 will mean the market hit its objective overnight and may revisit 1176.00 today.