E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – August 11, 2015 Forecast

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures posted an impressive rally on Thursday, but ran into resistance inside a key retracement zone. The catalyst behind the rally were bullish comments from a Fed member regarding the timing of the next Fed rate hike.

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The main range is 2126.25 to 2056.50. Its retracement zone at 2091.25 to 2099.75 stopped the rally on Monday. Trader reaction to this zone is likely to set the tone today and perhaps over the near-term.

Today’s session will be all about momentum. Bullish traders will try to maintain yesterday’s momentum in an effort to breakout over the Fibonacci level at 2099.75. A sustained move over this level could trigger a rally into the last main top at 2109.25 and a downtrending angle at 2110.25.

Look for another surge if 2110.25 is taken out with conviction with the next target another downtrending angle at 2118.25. This is the last angle before the 2126.25 contract high.

The key area on the downside is a price cluster at 2094.25 to 2094.00. A failure to hold this area will likely lead to a break into the key 50% level at 2091.25. The daily chart opens up to the downside under the 50% level with 2078.00 the next likely target.

The next support angles under 2078.00 come in at 2070.00 and 2066.00. The latter is the last major angle before the 2062.00 main bottom.

Look for a bullish tone to develop today on a sustained move over 2099.75 and a bearish tone on a sustained move under 2092.25.