E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – August 16, 2017 Forecast

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market opening. With the concerns over North Korea abating, investors will shift their focus to the Fed today and the release of the FOMC monetary policy minutes at 1800 GMT.

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2488.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 2430.25 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is 2488.50 to 2430.25. Its retracement zone at 2466.25 to 2459.25 is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the near-term trend of the market.

The main support zone is the retracement area at 2445.25 to 2435.25.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 2468.00 and the earlier price action, the direction of the index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 2466.25.

A sustained move over 2466.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into a downtrending angle at 2476.50. This is a possible trigger point for an acceleration into a pair of downtrending angles at 2482.50 and 2485.50. The latter is the last potential resistance angle before the 2488.50 main top.

A sustained move under 2466.25 will signal the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of a downtrending angle at 2464.50 will indicate the selling is getting stronger.

The market will get weaker if 2459.25 fails as support. This could lead to a test of the steep uptrending angle at 2454.25. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside. If this angle fails, we could see an eventual break into the next uptrending angle at 2442.25.