E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Decision Time for Buyers at 4399.75 – 4432.75

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly after the cash market opening on Thursday after a temporary truce in the debt-ceiling standoff in Congress relieved concerns of a possible government debt default, while a dip in oil prices eased worries of higher inflation.

At 13:41 GMT, December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4401.50, up 46.25 or +1.07%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum shifted to the upside earlier today when buyers took out 4365.75. The move confirmed the October 1 closing price reversal bottom.

A trade through 4472.00 will change the main trend to up. A move through 4260.00 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The short-term range is 4539.50 to 4260.00. Its retracement zone at 4399.75 to 4432.75 is the primary upside target. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the index. Since the main trend is down, look for sellers on the first test of this area. Overtaking the upper level could lead to a change in trend.

The minor range is 4472.00 to 4260.00. The index is trading on the strong side of its 50% level or pivot at 4366.00, making it new support.

The main range is 4117.00 to 4539.50. Its retracement zone at 4328.25 to 4278.50 is major support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4399.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4399.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into 4432.75. Sellers could come in on the first test of this level.

Overtaking 4432.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a surge into the main top at 4472.00. Taking out this price will change the main trend to up.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4399.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the pivot at 4366.00. Counter-trend buyers could come in on the first test of this level. If it fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the major support zone at 4328.25 to 4278.50.