E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Hovering Near Record High Ahead of Bank Earnings

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading flat shortly before the cash market opening on Tuesday as investors turn their attention to the start of the second-quarter earnings season for banks. On Monday, the benchmark index posted another record close.

At 09:21 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4376.50, unchanged for the session.

Investors are turning their attention to banks as they prepare to release their second quarter earnings this week, starting with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs Tuesday before the opening bell.

Banks are expected to double this quarter, following the 138% earnings growth the sector saw in the first quarter. The S&P 500 broadly is expected to produce its strongest earnings growth since the fourth quarter of 2009.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4379.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4126.75 will change the main trend to down.

This is highly unlikely, but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, the index is currently inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This chart pattern won’t change the main trend to down, but it if confirmed, it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The minor range is also up. A trade through 4279.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 4269.25 to 4379.25. Its 50% level at 4324.25 is the first support.

The short-term range is 4126.75 to 4379.25. If the minor trend changes to down then look for a test of its 50% level at 4253.00.

The main range is 4020.00 to 4379.25. Its retracement zone at 4199.50 to 4157.25 is the key support area and value zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4379.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4379.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside since there is not resistance.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4379.25 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the minor pivot at 4224.25. Look for an acceleration into 4279.25 to 4269.25 if this pivot fails as support.

Side Notes

Taking out 4379.25 then closing below 4376.50 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.