E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – January 24, 2019 Forecast

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading a little higher shortly before the cash market opening, but giving up earlier gains. The selling pressure started to increase after Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said China and the U.S. were not close to striking a trade deal.

Ross told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the U.S. is “miles and miles” from a trade deal with China, adding the two countries have “lots and lots of issues.”

At 1419 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2639.25, up 0.75 or +0.03%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2677.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend changes to down on a trade through 2438.50.

The minor trend is also up. It will change to down on a move through 2596.50. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The major retracement zone resistance is 2636.25 to 2711.50. This zone stopped the rally at 2677.75 earlier in the week.

The main range is 2438.50 to 2677.75. If the minor trend changes to down then look for the selling to extend into 2558.00 to 2530.00. Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in on a test of this zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures contract on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at 2636.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2636.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this can generate enough upside momentum then we could see a test of this week’s high at 2677.75. This is followed by a main top at 2690.50 then the major Fibonacci level at 2711.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2636.25 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is yesterday’s low at 2612.50. Look for the selling pressure to increase on a trade through this level. If it fails then look for an acceleration into the minor bottom at 2596.50.

Breaking the minor bottom at 2596.50 could trigger another acceleration into a series of levels at 2567.25, 2560.25 and 2558.00.