E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Major Fibonacci Level at 2816.00 Controlling Direction

It took a little while after the cash market opening, but June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures finally took out last week’s low. The initial move, however, was tentative, suggesting investors may have already priced in today’s earlier move by China to raise tariffs 25% on $60 billion of U.S. imports.

At 14:02 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2816.75, down 69.75 or 2.41%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed today when sellers took out Friday’s closing price reversal bottom. The next downside target is the 2789.50 main bottom.

The index is in no position to change the main trend to up, but it is inside the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom just like we saw on Friday.

The main range is 2726.50 to 2961.25. The index is currently testing the lower or Fibonacci level of its retracement zone at 2816.00. The upper or 50% level comes in at 2844.00.

The short-term range is 2789.50 to 2961.25. Its retracement zone at 2855.25 to 2875.50 is resistance.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 2816.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2816.00 will indicate that buyers are coming in to defend against a steep sell-off.

Overcoming a pair of uptrending Gann angles at 2816.50 and 2823.50 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a rally into a steep downtrending Gann angle at 2833.25.

Taking out 2833.25 could trigger a surge into the main 50% level at 2844.00. This is followed by the main Fibonacci level at 2855.25. Overtaking this level could lead to further upside strength with the market turning higher for the session.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2816.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target the main bottom at 2789.50. This is another trigger point for an even steeper decline into the next uptrending Gann angle at 2771.50. This is the last potential support angle before the 2726.50 main bottom.