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James Hyerczyk
E-mini S&P 500 Index
E-mini S&P 500 Index

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled slightly lower on Friday, but buyers did claw back more than half of the sell-off from earlier in the session. The index posted its high for the week on Wednesday, the same day that the Fed raised rates for the third time this year. Weaker banking stocks put a lid on the market and drove prices lower. However, a strong technology sector helped limit losses.

Daily December E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top at 2947.00 on September 21.

A trade through 2947.00 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 2883.50.

The minor trend is down. This confirms the shift in momentum to down. A trade through 2936.00 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum back to the upside.

The main range is 2869.50 to 2947.00. Its retracement zone at 2908.25 to 2899.00 is the primary downside target. Its upper or 50% level at 2908.25 provided support three times last week.

The intermediate range is 2883.50 to 2947.00. Its 50% level or pivot at 2915.25 was straddled three times last week. This level could be controlling the direction of the market.

The short-term range is 2947.00 to 2907.50. Its 50% level or pivot at 2927.25 is the first upside target today.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s close at 2919.00 and the price action last week, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 2915.25.

A sustained move over 2915.25 will signal the presence of buyers. If this can create enough upside momentum then look for buyers to make a run at the next pivot at 2927.25. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into 2936.00. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could extend the rally into 2947.00.

A sustained move under 2915.25 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the main 50% level at 2908.25. Taking out this level and last week’s low at 2907.50 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into the main Fibonacci level at 2899.00.

The daily chart starts to open up to the downside under 2899.00 with the main bottom at 2883.50 the next major target.

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