E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – March 24, 2017 Forecast

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market opening. The market appears to be in a holding pattern as investors await the vote to appeal Obamacare and approve the new Republican healthcare plan.

There is a fear that if the bill isn’t passed, it may mean a delay in President Trump’s plans to reform taxes, relax regulations and increase fiscal spending. However, Trump is now saying that if the bill doesn’t pass, he’ll leave Obamacare as is and move onto tax reform.

Based on Trump’s comments, it’s hard to forecast how investors will react to the news.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2332.25 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will turn up on a trade through 2388.75.

The main range is 2257.25 to 2397.25. Its retracement zone at 2327.25 to 2310.75 is the primary downside target.

The short-term range is 2388.75 to 2332.25. Its retracement zone at 2360.50 to 2367.25 is the primary upside target.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 2344.75 and the earlier price action. The direction of the index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending angle at 2340.75.

A sustained move over 2340.75 will signal the presence of buyers. This could create enough upside momentum to challenge the short-term 50% level at 2360.50, the downtrending angle at 2364.75 and the Fibonacci level at 2367.25.

If the buying is strong enough to take out 2367.25 then look for the move to possibly extend into 2380.25 then a price cluster at 2388.75. This is the last potential resistance area before the 2397.25 main top.

Crossing under 2340.75 will be a sign of weakness. The next targets come in at 2332.25, 2331.25 and 2327.25. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside under 2327.25 with the next target the Fibonacci level at 2310.75.

Watch the price action at 2340.75 all session. If volatility returns then we could see a breakout over 2367.25 or a breakdown under 2327.25.