E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Needs to Hold 4288.50 to Sustain Upside Momentum

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading nearly flat shortly before the cash market opening on Thursday after hitting a new record high overnight in the pre-market session. The volatility and volume are light as investors position themselves ahead of a few reports today and Friday’s major U.S. labor report.

At 10:58 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4287.25, down 1.25 or -0.03%.

The latest data on weekly jobless claims will be released Thursday at 12:30 GMT. Economists polled by Dow Jones are expecting initial claims for unemployment totaled 390,000 last week, after totaling 411,000 for the week ended June 19.

Traders will also get the opportunity to react to the Challenger Job Cuts report, ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending.

On Friday, the government will release its monthly labor report. The Non-Farm Payrolls report for June is expected to show the economy added about 700,000 jobs. However, there are some whispers that some traders expect to see a figure north of 1 million jobs.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high at 4305.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

A move through 4126.75 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely, but the prolonged move up in terms of price and time has put the index in a position to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This won’t change the trend, but it could trigger a 2 to 3 day correction.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 4269.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 4269.25 to 4305.75. The index is currently testing its pivot at 4287.50.

The short-term range is 4126.75 to 4305.75. If the minor trend changes to down then look for the selling to possibly extend into its pivot at 4216.25.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4288.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4288.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to possibly extend into 4305.75. Taking out this level will reaffirm the uptrend.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4288.50 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out the pivot at 4287.50 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger a steep break into the minor pivot at 4269.25.

Momentum will shift to the downside under 4269.25. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside with another pivot at 4216.25 the next likely target.

Side Notes

A close under 4288.50 will form a closing price reversal top. If this chart pattern is confirmed then look for the start of a 2 to 3 day correction with 4216.25 the minimum target.