E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Needs to Stay Above Fib Level at 2755.25 to Keep Rally Going

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled near the high of the week, putting the market in a position to follow-through to the upside on Monday.  In the process, the index also formed a new higher minor bottom. More importantly, it closed on the strong side of a key retracement zone. Our only concern is that the rally took place during a slow U.S. holiday week so volume was light.

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through 2796.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 2693.25 will change the minor trend to down. Taking out 2679.25 will mean the selling is getting stronger.

The main range is 2889.00 to 2538.75. Its retracement zone at 2713.75 to 2755.25 is controlling the longer-term direction of the index. The close on the strong side of this area is helping to give the index an upside bias.

The short-term range is 2595.75 to 2796.00. Its retracement zone at 2695.75 to 2672.25 is support. This zone helped stop the price slide at 2693.25 two weeks ago.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on the weekly close at 2763.00, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at 2755.25.

A sustained move over 2755.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into the main top at 2796.00, followed closely by the downtrending Gann angle at 2797.00.

We could see a technical bounce on the first test of 2796.00 to 2797.00, but overcoming it with conviction could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the first target a main top at 2814.00 and the second another downtrending Gann angle at 2843.00.

On the downside, there is an early support cluster formed by an uptrending Gann angle at 2675.75 and the Fibonacci level at 2755.25. Watch this area closely.

Crossing to the weak side of the Fibonacci level at 2755.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a drop into a pair of 50% levels at 2713.75 and 2695.75 then a support cluster at 2675.75 to 2672.25.

Trader reaction to 2755.25 will determine whether the index reaches 2797.00 or trades down to 2713.75.