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E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Next Big Challenge for Bulls is 4631.75 – 4658.00

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Dec 21, 2021, 18:23 UTC

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index over the short-run is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4631.75 to 4658.00.

E-mini S&P 500 Index Up

In this article:

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher at the mid-session on Tuesday following three days of losses amid fears about the fast-spreading Covid omicron variant.

The benchmark index is coming back from a three-day losing streak spurred by the omicron surge that accounted for 73% of new infections in the U.S. last week, federal health officials said Monday. The S&P 500 notched its worst three-day stretch since September on Monday.

At 17:55 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4625.50, up 67.00 or +1.47%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $461.79, up $6.81 or +1.50%.

Reopening plays, like airlines, cruise lines and entertainment stocks, saw some relief buying on Tuesday. Delta Air Lines rose 6.2%, United Airlines gained 7% and Carnival Corp, added 9%. Las Vegas Sands was up more than 8%. Caesars Entertainment added 8.4%. Boeing rose 5%.

Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4520.25 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 4485.75 will reaffirm the downtrend. A move through 4743.25 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A new minor bottom has formed at 4520.25.

The main range is 4252.75 to 4743.25. Its retracement zone at 4498.00 to 4440.00 is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is 4485.75 to 4743.25. The market is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at 4614.50 to 4584.00, making it support.

The minor range is 4753.25 to 4520.25. Its retracement zone at 4631.75 to 4658.00 is the next upside target.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index over the short-run is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4631.75 to 4658.00.

Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on the first test of 4631.75 to 4658.00. They are going to try to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top. This could lead to a resumption of the downtrend.

Overtaking 4658.00 won’t change the main trend to up, but it will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 4743.25 the next major upside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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