E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – November 23, 2016 Forecast

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are expected to open lower as investors prepare for a slew of economic data today as well as Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday. Weekly jobless claims increased 18,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 251,000 for the week-ended November 19. Additionally, the Commerce Department said U.S. Durable Goods increased 4.8 percent in October, well above a 1.5 percent consensus estimate.

Other data today includes the HIS Markit manufacturing index for November, New Home Sales for October and Consumer Sentiment. The Fed will release its meeting minutes at 1900 GMT.

Technically, the main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend is not in a position to turn down, but the index is in a position to post a technically bearish closing price reversal top. We’ve already seen the higher-high, now all we need is a close below yesterday’s close at 2200.25 to form this chart pattern.

The first downside target is a steep uptrending angle at 2188.50. The daily chart indicates there is room to the downside if this angle fails as support. The main range is 2028.50 to 2203.50. If a steep sell-off begins then over the near-term we could seek a correction back to its retracement zone at 2116.00 to 2095.25.

Minor support levels come in at 2178.50 and 2147.75.

Look for the downside on a sustained move under 2200.25 and for a possible acceleration to the downside if 2188.50 fails as support. The uptrend should resume if buyers can sustain a rally over 2200.25.

Last week’s close was 2180.75. Based on the earlier price action and the thin trading conditions. This is another possible downside target.