E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – October 11, 2018 Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at 2748.50. This level provided support earlier today.
James Hyerczyk
E-mini S&P 500 Index
E-mini S&P 500 Index

E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are lower again early Thursday, but the index is trying to claw back earlier losses. The early price action suggests traders are respecting a key retracement zone on the weekly chart. This zone is important because it appears on all three major charts – monthly, weekly and daily – which means it should attract volume. And volume will tell us if buyers have returned or if sellers are still in control.

At 0817 GMT, December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2758.50, down 22.25 or -0.81%.

December E-mini S&P 500 Index

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 2696.75. A trade through 2947.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This move shifted momentum to the downside.

The main range is 2500.00 from the week-ending February 9 to 2947.00 from the week-ending September 21. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone is 2748.50 to 2701.75. This zone is major support. It is also controlling the near-term direction of the index.

If 2947.00 to 2748.50 becomes the new minor range then its retracement zone at 2847.75 to 2871.25 will become the primary upside target.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at 2748.50. This level provided support earlier today.

A sustained move over 2748.50 will indicate the return of buyers. If they can generate enough upside momentum then we could see a retracement into 2847.75 to 2871.25 over the near-term. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the direction of the next major move.

A sustained move under 2748.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could fuel a spike into 2701.75. This is followed closely by the main bottom at 2696.75.

Look for a potential acceleration to the downside if 2696.75 fails. The next downside target under 2696.75 comes in at 2602.75, followed by 2562.50 and 2550.00.

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