E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – September 11, 2015 Forecast

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading flat, shortly before the regular session opening. Volume and volatility are below average which indicates the major players are on the sidelines. They are likely to remain there until the release of the latest Fed monetary policy statement on September 17.

There may be a reaction to today’s Producer Price Index and Consumer Sentiment reports. However, the reaction is not likely to reflect how stock investors feel about the Fed’s interest rate decision. The market already accepts that the U.S. economy is strong enough to handle a rate hike. The opposing Fed members are more worried about what rising interest rates could do to a fragile global economy given the volatility in international equity markets and dovish central banks.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. It will turn up when buyers take out the August 28 top at 1992.75. Also providing resistance is the September 9 closing price reversal top at 1992.00.

The main range is 2103.75 to 1831.00. Its retracement zone is 1967.50 to 1999.50. The 50% level at 1967.50 forms a resistance cluster with a downtrending angle at 1967.75. This area is also a trigger point for an upside breakout.

A sustained move over 1967.75 could trigger a rally into 1992.00 to 1992.75. These highs are followed by a Fibonacci level at 1999.50.

The first target on the downside is an uptrending angle at 1935.00. This angle and the angle at 1967.75 form a triangle chart pattern.

Taking out 1935.00 or the bottom of the triangle could trigger an acceleration into the 50% level at 1911.75. This is followed by the Fibonacci level at 1892.75 and another uptrending angle at 1883.00.

Don’t be surprised by more sideways price action today. The market could bounce between support and resistance angles at 1935.00 and 1967.75, or between a pair of 50% levels at 1967.50 and 1911.75.

Because of the low volume and volatility, be careful buying strength and selling weakness.