E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 4076.00, Weakens Under 4052.25

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading slightly lower shortly before the cash market opening on Wednesday as the major players took to the sidelines ahead of the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting at 18:00 GMT that could offer clues on the central bank’s views on inflation and an economic recovery.

At 12:56 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are at 4057.75, down 6.25 or -0.15%.

“The minutes could help explain how the Fed plans to communicate future policy decisions and shed light on how some policymakers could change their view on monetary policy if inflation and growth does accelerate as expected this summer,” said Neil Wilson, chief market analyst for Markets.com in London.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, yesterday’s potentially bearish closing price reversal top suggests momentum may be getting ready to shift to the downside.

A trade through 4076.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4052.25 will confirm the closing price reversal top. This won’t change the trend to down, but it could trigger the start of at least a 2 to 3 day correction, or perhaps a 50% correction of the current rally.

The short-term range is 3843.25 to 4076.00. Its retracement zone at 3959.50 to 3932.00 is a potential downside target.

The minor range is 4076.00 to 4052.25. Its 50% level comes in at 4064.00. Trader reaction to this level could set the tone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4064.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4064.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a breakout over 4076.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4064.00 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out yesterday’s low at 4052.25 will confirm the closing price reversal top. This will shift momentum to the downside. This could also trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction with 3959.50 the minimum downside target.