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E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 4358.50, Weakens Under 4326.75

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Jul 16, 2021, 17:34 UTC

The direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4358.50.

E-mini S&P 500 Index

In this article:

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are edging lower at the mid-session on Friday as a worse-than-expected consumer sentiment reading overshadowed strong retail sales numbers and earnings reports.

The U.S. consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan came in at 80.8 for the first half of July, down from 85.5 last month and worse than economists estimated, who projected an increase.

The survey released Friday showed inflation expectations rising with consumers believing prices will increase 4.8% in the next year, the highest level since August 2008.

At 17:04 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4343.75, down 8.25 or -0.19%.

Inflation fears appeared to overshadow a strong retail sales report released Friday and signals of improving employment. Retail and food service sales rose 0.6% in June, while economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a 0.4% decline.

Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4384.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The main trend will change to down on a trade through 4126.75. This is highly unlikely but a close under 4360.00 will form a weekly closing price reversal top. If confirmed next week, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 week correction.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 4279.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will confirm a shift in momentum.

The minor trend is 4384.50 to 4332.50. Its 50% level at 4358.50 is potential resistance. The index is currently trading on the weak side of this level.

The second minor range is 4269.25 to 4384.50. Its retracement zone at 4326.75 is potential support. The index is currently hovering just above this level.

The third minor range is 4126.75 to 4384.50. If the minor trend changes to down then look for a break into its 50% level at 4255.50.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4358.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4358.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into 4326.75. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with near-term targets coming in at 4279.25, 4269.25 and 4255.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4358.50 will signal the presence of buyers. Taking out 4370.25 will make 4332.50 a new minor bottom. This could create the momentum needed to challenge the all-time high at 4384.50.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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