E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 4433.25, Weakens Under 4429.50

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower on Monday shortly after the cash market opening. The catalyst behind the selling pressure is a steep sell-off in oil stocks fueled by a more than 4% drop in crude prices on concerns over rising COVID-19 cases in Asia.

At 14:35 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4420.75, down 8.75 or -0.20%.

According to Reuters, oil and gas firms Exxon Mobil Corp, Chevron Corp, Halliburton Co and Schlumberger NV dropped between 1.4% and 2.5% in premarket trading, as rising coronavirus cases particularly in China, raised fears of new curbs that could hurt demand.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4433.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 4224.00.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 4364.75 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 4364.75 to 4433.25. Its 50% level or pivot at 4399.00 is the nearest potential support.

The short-term range is 4224.00 to 4433.25. If the minor trend changes to down then look for the selling to possibly extend into its retracement zone at 4328.50 to 4304.00.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4433.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move under 4433.25 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out 4412.25 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the pivot at 4399.00.

Look for buyers on the first test of 4399.00. If it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor bottom at 4364.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move over 4433.25 will signal the presence of buyers. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Side Notes

Taking out 4433.25 then closing lower for the session will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could lead to the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.