E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 4445.75, Weakens Under 4416.50

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly before the cash market opening on Monday after giving back earlier gains. Energy stocks gained as investors bet on a continued economic recovery with U.S. Covid cases declining, but technology shares were lower.

At 11:16 GMT, December E-mini S&P 500 Index are trading 4440.00, down 5.75 or -0.13%.

Also weighing on sentiment was a potential government shutdown to end the week and higher Treasury yields.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4539.50 will change the main trend to up. A move through 4293.75 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The short-term range is 4539.50 to 4293.75. The index is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at 4445.50 to 4416.50, making it support.

The minor range is 4293.75 to 4472.00. Its retracement zone at 4382.75 to 4361.75 is another potential downside target area.

The main range is 4117.00 to 4539.50. Its retracement zone at 4328.25 to 4278.50 is the major support area. This zone stopped the selling at 4293.75 on September 20.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4445.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4445.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out 4472.00 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside over 4483.50. If buyers can clear this level with strong volume then we could see a near-term drive into the all-time high at 4539.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4445.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into 4416.50. Counter-trend buyers could come in to defend this level, but if it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor retracement zone at 4382.75 to 4361.75.