E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 4444.25 Sets the Tone into Close

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading slightly lower on Wednesday as the major players sat on the sidelines ahead of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting that will likely show the path of monetary policy support over the next few months.

At 15:34 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4438.25, down 5.25 or -0.12%.

Nine of the 11 major S&P sectors fell in early trading. Energy shares led declines, adding to a 4.4% fall in the past four sessions amid fears of slowing global growth. Banking stocks were flat.

The S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector added 0.8%, after falling 2.3% on Tuesday. Lowe’s Co Inc and Tesla provided the biggest boost to the index.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 4476.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4224.00 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum.

The minor range is 4476.50 to 4411.75. The index is currently straddling its pivot at 4444.25.

The second minor range is 4364.75 to 4476.50. Its 50% level at 4414.00 is support. This level was tested successfully on Tuesday.

The short-term range is 4224.00 to 4476.50. If the selling pressure continues then look for the move to possibly extend into its retracement zone at 4350.25 to 4320.50 over the near-term.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4444.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4444.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the record high at 4476.50. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4444.00 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the price cluster at 4414.00 to 4411.75.

Buyers could come in on the first test of 4411.75, but if it fails then look for the start of a steep break with 4364.75 the first target, followed by the short-term retracement zone at 4350.25 to 4320.50.