E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Upside Momentum Slowing; 4281.25 Sets the Tone

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading flat early Wednesday as traders prepare to close out a winning first half of 2021 and second quarter. Throughout the quarter, investors have shrugged off high inflation readings and have kept buying stocks on the hopes an economic comeback from the pandemic would continue.

At 06:23 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 4284.25, up 2.25 or +0.05%.

Homebuilder stocks rose Tuesday after S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller published its National Home Price Index, which showed home prices rose more than 14% in April from the previous year and several major cities in the U.S. had their highest annual price gains. Lennar stock rose almost 1% and shares of PulteGroup rose 1.9%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4291.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through 4126.75 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely, but since the market is up seven sessions since its last main bottom, it may be vulnerable to a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor range is 4126.75 to 4291.00. Its 50% level at 4208.75 is the nearest support.

The short-term range is 4020.00 to 4291.00. Its retracement zone at 4155.50 to 4123.50 is the primary downside target and value zone.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4281.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4281.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. A trade through 4291.00 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. There is no resistance at this time.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4281.25 will signal the presence of sellers. A trade through 4271.75 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could signal the start of a near-term correction.

Side Notes

Taking out 4291.00 then closing lower for the session will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.