E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Weakens Under 3194.75, Strengthens Over 3238.00

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market opening after posting a two-day plunge late last week. The price action suggests investors are expecting a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday when it releases its monetary policy statement. This could mean additional stimulus measures over the near-term. Meanwhile, investors are bracing for quarterly earnings reports from companies including Boeing and Apple.

At 12:34 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3218.25, up 14.25 or +0.44%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 3284.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 3105.25.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the downside momentum.

The minor range is 3284.50 to 3191.50. Its 50% level at 3238.00 is the critical level to watch on Monday. Sellers may come in on a test of this level. They are going to try to form a secondary lower top.

The short-term range is 3105.25 to 3284.50.  Its retracement zone at 3194.75 to 3173.75 is potential support. This zone stopped the selling on Friday at 3191.50.

The intermediate range is 2923.75 to 3284.50. Its retracement zone is another potential downside target at 3104.00 to 3061.50.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 3194.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3194.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the minor pivot at 3238.00.

Overtaking 3238.00 will indicate the buying is getting stronger, putting the index in a position to challenge last week’s high at 3284.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3194.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This is followed closely by 3191.50 and a Fibonacci level at 3173.75.

The trigger point for an acceleration to the downside is 3173.75. If sellers can take out this price with conviction then look for a potential plunge into a support cluster at 3105.25 to 3104.00.

Side Notes

Watch the price action and read the order flow on a test of 3238.00. Trader reaction to this level could set the tone for the week. Buyers are going to try to overtake this level with conviction, while sellers are going to try to form a secondary lower top.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.