E-mini S&P 500 Sellers Targeting 4530.50 Fibonacci Support

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly after the cash market opening as investors struggled with the raging conflict in Ukraine and the outlook for U.S. interest rate hikes. Investors also prepared to close the worst quarter since the pandemic crash in 2020 ahead of Friday’s March U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.

At 13:39 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index is trading 4587.00, down 9.00 or -0.20%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at 457.56, down $1.14 or -0.25%.

Sellers are attempting to erase some of the gains from earlier in week tied to the peace talks. However, much of the optimism around the peace talks faded as Ukrainian forces prepared for fresh Russian attacks in the southeast region. The countries will resume peace talks online on April 1.

One big loser early in the session is Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. It’s down over 6.0% after the company kept its 2022 forecast of low-single digit earnings growth unchanged.

Traders expect to see a volatile trade in the S&P Energy Index with crude oil down sharply. During the premarket session, oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron both fell nearly 2%, but have since recovered most of that loss as crude oil prices rebounded from a 5% decline.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4631.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through 4129.50 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely but there is room for a normal 50% to 61.8% correction.

The main range is 4800.00 to 4094.25. Its retracement zone at 4530.50 to 4447.00 is the nearest support area.

The short-term range is 4094.25 to 4631.00. Its retracement zone at 4362.50 to 4299.25 is another support area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Thursday will be determined by trader reaction to the old top at 4578.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4578.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this is able to generate enough upside momentum, we could see a retest of the intraday high at 4631.00. Taking out this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This would put the index on course for an eventual test of the January 1 main top at 4730.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4578.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a sharp break into the Fibonacci level at 4530.50.

Taking out 4530.50 will be a sign of weakness. This could trigger an even harder break with the main 50% level at 4447.00 the primary downside target.